Market Analytics

  • Brent ICE 1st nearby ($/b) 79.53 7.59%
  • TTF ICE Month-Ahead (€/MWh) 76.51 1.19%
  • TTF ICE Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 48.37 5.31%
  • NBP ICE Month-Ahead (p/th) 190.38 -.38%
  • Henry Hub NYMEX ($/MMBTU) 5.71 14.46%
  • NE Asia LNG JKM Platts ($/MMBTU) 28.90 9.29%
  • API 2 ICE Cal 2022 ($/t) 149.06 18.25%
  • DE EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 113.91 8.18%
  • FR EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 118.32 8.05%
  • EUA ICE Dec'21 (€/t) 64.37 6.08%

Short Term Gas Contracts Off Lows on Supply

  • Ukraine grid operator stopped receiving gas at key pipeline entry point.
  • Gazprom PJSC said, “it can’t reroute supply to alternate hub location”.
  • European spot TTF and UK NBP gas contracts moved higher on Tuesday on the back of this news after a week of losses.
  • The benchmark front month TTF contract then erased some of these gain to trade 1.5% lower at 97.40 euros MWh on Wednesday morning.
  • Ukraine’s gas network operator had said late Tuesday it would stop receiving the fuel into the Sokhranivka gas hub.
  • This is the first time the war in Ukraine has disrupted gas flows to Europe via the country.
  • Gazprom PJSC had been flowing normally through both entry points despite the conflict.
  • Major European buyers are still facing end of month deadlines for Russia’s demand to be paid for gas in Rubles.
  • New Stream see weaker market fundamentals but expect price volatility to continue in the short term.

Germany secures four floating LNG terminals in rush to replace Russian gas

  • The first terminal will be operational in Wilhelmshaven before the end of the year.
  • Germany’s Federal Cabinet has given approval to legislation to cut the approval process for LNG terminals to a 10th of the usual time.
  • With fewer hurdles to clear, the LNG terminals, which would normally take years to build, could all be installed by end of Q1 2023.
  • More onshore terminals are also in the early planning stages.
  • Wilhelmshaven LNG terminal will have an import capacity of over 5 billion cubic meters.
  • Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FRSUs) are a quick way of building up additional LNG import capacity.
  • EU states seeking to reduce reliance on Russia.

UK Power and PPAs

  • Gas is still the big driver of PPAs and UK power.
  • Price volatility returns at the front end of the curve.
  • Wind Generation is high and power markets look well supplied.
  • Increased LNG and gas supply had moved UK pricing lower.
  • Higher wind generation has decreased spot market pricing levels and volatility.

Key Drivers:

  • Gas demand and Renewable weather forecasts.
  • Carbon markets.
  • Geopolitics and Russian gas flows.
  • European storage levels.
  • LNG supply.

Carbon:

  • EUA’s are currently trading around 87 €/t, with UKA’s around 87 £/t.
  • The EUA Carbon market continues to trade sideways with lowering seasonal demand.
  • Geopolitical tension with Russian gas flows could influence short term price movements.

“As Russia’s war continues, we have seen the German government frantically looking for alternatives to Russian pipeline gas and mobile floating tankers repurposed to process LNG from around the world have become the government’s solution. The Germans are betting on more flexible floating terminals and onshore sites. It could be a game changer as once all terminals are in place, Germany will regas capacity of 20 bcm per year, that’s 50% of its 2021 gas imports from Russia.”

Jamie Banks,

PPA Manager at New Stream

 

New Stream Market Price Assessments

                                                

Price  reference is based on a new stream assessment of the evolution and settlement of historic traded contracts and a forward curve of baseload power.

   

Historic Day-Ahead Power Auction Prices from the UK’s Block 5 Auction (15:00-19:00 GMT/BST).

  

Price reference is based on a New Stream assessment of the evolution and settlement of historic traded contracts and a forward curve of the NBP.

Historic UK NBP Gas day ahead close prices.

New Stream Market Data

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Daily peak generation by fuel type of the UK’s three largest contributing sources: CCGT, Nuclear and Wind.

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Historical Futures Prices: ECX EUA Futures, Continuous Contract #1. Non-adjusted price based on spot-month continuous contract calculations. Raw data from ICE.