Gas Markets:
- UK Day-ahead gas price last traded at 228p/th.
- Gas for power demand is seen at around 60 mcm.
- We are expecting two more LNG cargoes this week (possibly today).
- Price volatility continues to increase at the “front end of the curve”.
UK Power and PPAs:
- Lower wind generation has increased spot market pricing levels and volatility.
- Wind represents 12% of the overall power generation stack.
- Weather forecasts suggest expected wind to average around 6 GW for the rest of the week.
- Wind forecasts are again key to short term pricing.
Key Drivers:
- Wind generation.
- Russian gas flows and European storage levels.
- LNG cargos.
Carbon:
- EUA’s are currently trading above 69 €/t, with UKA’s around 67 £/t.
- This past week UKA’s have shown bullish growth on the back of increased fossil fuel generation, increasing demand.
- It is almost certain that the CCM will be triggered in December, with the average price during November required to be above £52.88.
- The UK ETS authority will consider the most appropriate intervention given the market context.
