02 November 2021

Market Price Assessment – PPA , GPA and Carbon Markets 2nd November 2021

  • Brent ICE 1st nearby ($/b) 79.53 7.59%
  • TTF ICE Month-Ahead (€/MWh) 76.51 1.19%
  • TTF ICE Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 48.37 5.31%
  • NBP ICE Month-Ahead (p/th) 190.38 -.38%
  • Henry Hub NYMEX ($/MMBTU) 5.71 14.46%
  • NE Asia LNG JKM Platts ($/MMBTU) 28.90 9.29%
  • API 2 ICE Cal 2022 ($/t) 149.06 18.25%
  • DE EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 113.91 8.18%
  • FR EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 118.32 8.05%
  • EUA ICE Dec'21 (€/t) 64.37 6.08%
NBP Gas Market Fundamentals:
  • European and NBP gas prices fluctuated wildly at the front end the curve yesterday.
  • The front-month Dec NBP contract gapping up 10% on the open before closing the day flat to Fridays close.
  • Gas is still the key driver for UK Power and PPAs.
  • 4 LNG cargoes are expected into the UK this week.
  • Gas for power demand is expected to be around 35 mcm.
  • We continue to see lower Russian flows supporting spot and front-month pricing.
  • Price volatility continues particularly at the “front end of the curve”.
UK Power and PPAs:
  • Spot UK power pricing through the peaks up over £1000 MWh.
  • Low wind generation squeezing margins.
  • Upwards price momentum appears to be slowing, but underlying fundamentals remain tight.
  • PPA fixing opportunities to lock in value, out to 2024.
Key Drivers:
  • Low wind generation.
  • The European gas market is off the highs but still trading at strong levels.
  • Oil market is up, and the broader commodity complex remains bullish.
Carbon Markets:
  • The Dec-21 EUA contract is trading around 58€/t, with UKA last trading around 52 £/t.
  • The premium over EUA’s has dropped further to 3 £/t.
  • Potential for further gains on the back of increasing power demand and low wind forecasts into winter

Request a Callback

  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.