06 January 2022

Market Price Assessment – PPA , GPA and Carbon Markets 6th Jan 2022

  • Brent ICE 1st nearby ($/b) 79.53 7.59%
  • TTF ICE Month-Ahead (€/MWh) 76.51 1.19%
  • TTF ICE Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 48.37 5.31%
  • NBP ICE Month-Ahead (p/th) 190.38 -.38%
  • Henry Hub NYMEX ($/MMBTU) 5.71 14.46%
  • NE Asia LNG JKM Platts ($/MMBTU) 28.90 9.29%
  • API 2 ICE Cal 2022 ($/t) 149.06 18.25%
  • DE EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 113.91 8.18%
  • FR EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 118.32 8.05%
  • EUA ICE Dec'21 (€/t) 64.37 6.08%

European Gas Prices Bounce

  • European TTF and UK NBP gas were up following the holiday period sell-off.
  • Russian flows to Europe were reduced again and remain well below historical levels when storage is short.
  • Gas storage inventories are well below the 5- and 10-year averages.
  • 13 LNG ships have been re-routed to Europe instead of Asia.

PPA Manager“We have seen LNG cargo originally meant to be delivered to Tianjin in China diverted to Europe. That’s a costly detour! But just shows price spread to Europe and current demand situation.”

Jamie Banks, PPA Manager at New Stream Renewables


  • This supply is mainly from the U.S. and West Africa and is up from 8 cargos last week.
  • The UK Day-ahead gas price last traded around 230p/th.
  • Gas for power demand is nominated at around 50 mcm.
U.K. Power and PPAs:
  • Higher wind generation has decreased some spot market pricing levels and volatility.
  • Wind represents around 25% of the overall power generation stack.
  • Weather forecasts suggest that wind is expected to reduce later today.
  • Wind forecasts are again key to short term pricing.
Key Drivers:
  • Wind generation.
  • Russian gas flows and European storage levels.
  • LNG cargos.
  • The UK ETS CCM (Cost Containment Mechanism) was triggered for December, but with no intervention.
    • It was triggered for January, with a decision by the 18th of this month.
  • EUA’s are currently trading above 87 €/t, with UKA’s around 76 £/t.