17 November 2021

Market Price Assessment – PPA , GPA and Carbon Markets 17.11.2021

  • Brent ICE 1st nearby ($/b) 79.53 7.59%
  • TTF ICE Month-Ahead (€/MWh) 76.51 1.19%
  • TTF ICE Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 48.37 5.31%
  • NBP ICE Month-Ahead (p/th) 190.38 -.38%
  • Henry Hub NYMEX ($/MMBTU) 5.71 14.46%
  • NE Asia LNG JKM Platts ($/MMBTU) 28.90 9.29%
  • API 2 ICE Cal 2022 ($/t) 149.06 18.25%
  • DE EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 113.91 8.18%
  • FR EEX Base Cal 2022 (€/MWh) 118.32 8.05%
  • EUA ICE Dec'21 (€/t) 64.37 6.08%
Delays to New Russian Pipeline Causes European Gas Prices to Surge

The front end NBP gas jumped up to near a four-week high on delays in starting up Nord Stream 2. EU has requested that the operator set up a German subsidiary, which will be the owner of the section of the pipeline in the country.

“The start date of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been thrown into doubt which has been bullish in terms of market sentiment. Good news for renewable generators and PPA fixing.”

Jamie Banks, PPA Manager at New Stream Renewables.

  • Day-ahead gas price last traded at 215p/th.
  • There is some significant Norwegian maintenance today with a reduction of around 50 mcm.
  • We are expecting one more LNG cargo this week (possibly today).
  • Price volatility continues to increase at the “front end of the curve”.
UK Power and PPAs
  • Higher wind generation has reduced spot market pricing levels and volatility.
  • Wind represents 15% of the overall power generation stack.
  • Weather forecasts suggest expected wind to average around 6 GW for the rest of the week.
  • Forecasts of lower wind for next week.
Key Drivers:
  • Wind generation.
  • Russian gas flows and European storage levels.
  • LNG cargos.
  • EUA’s are currently trading above 67 €/t, with UKA’s around 58 £/t.
  • There has been little change in the spread over the last week, with both contracts maintaining a steady climb.
  • The CCM will likely be triggered in December, with the average price during November required to be above £52.88.