26 November 2020

System Margin Warning and Power Price Risk


National Grid have issued a system warning for margin tomorrow between 16.30 and 18.30.

This expected shortfall is a meaningful 740MW although this is subject to change. 


National Grid Electricity Control Centre (in their role as the System Operator) issue electricity margin notices to encourage market actions to increase “System Margins”.

It is the responsibility of the System Operator to ensure that the right amount of electricity is where it’s needed, when it’s needed – always keeping supply and demand in perfect balance.

New Stream analysis shows a high number of scenarios where power prices could exceed £150 MWh.

Upside price risk is expected to continue for the rest of the week.

We see wind dropping steeply over the next few days (10000 MW down to approx. 4000 MW at peak times). 

New Stream continue to see robust peak demand during winter Covid restrictions (peak demand expected to remain in excess of 40,000 MW despite lockdown restrictions).

For further insight and advice please contact

Tom Rees – tom.rees@newstreamgroup.com


Tom Rees,
Data Analyst at New Stream